Too much employment land – so it could be changed into more housing developments

Many will recall that EDDC commissioned two surveys of the need for employment land in East Devon, both of which were ignored in favour of the quickly-produced report by the East Devon Business Forum which said that both reports were wrong and theirs was the correct one.

This is a post from “Planning” website from one of the consultants whose report was ignored.

1 June 2012

Richard Pestell, an employment expert and senior associate at Roger Tym & Partners, told a Royal Town Planning Institute conference on economic development he believed there was an “endemic” problem of local authorities using overoptimistic forecasts, despite a significant drop in demand for employment land since the recession.  He said this meant councils had been allocating too much employment land, which was at risk of either being left undeveloped or was vulnerable to housing applications that stood a good chance of winning on appeal.

Speaking after the conference Pestell said: “If any local authority has an evidence-based document it hasn’t critically reassessed in the last 24 months, then it needs to.  “If anything is contaminated with pre-recession government spending expectations and growth estimates, it doesn’t hold true any more. Most studies we look at are out-of-date.”

Under the regional strategies, local authorities were told to provide a certain amount of land for employment, as well as housing.  With regional strategies soon set to be abolished, councils are expected to work with their neighbours under the duty to cooperate to decide employment land allocations supported by evidence based on local job growth projections.

But many authorities, Pestell said, were still using pre-recession forecasts from the regional strategies. For example, he said that forecasts of jobs growth drawn up for the former East of England Regional Assembly to inform local authority plans in the region between 2011 and 2031 halved between August 2008 and August 2010.  They show that in 2008, 699,300 jobs were expected to be created over the period – but just two years later, just 350,200 were expected.

Pestell advised councils to base their plans on current economic forecasts and to use market intelligence where possible to protect their employment land.  He pointed out that the most recent government guidance for councils on employment land review best practice dates back to 2004, well before economic growth slowed.

So, employment land which is unutilised could be changed into EVEN MORE housing developments.  And that will vastly increase the profit to be made from that land.